房价会下跌吗？
今天有关房价的头条新闻和新闻报道令人困惑，让人很难知道到底发生了什么。有人说房价正在走向修正，但事实又是怎样的呢？那么，我们不妨先来看看修正意味着什么。
Here’s what Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, says:
“In stock market terms, a correction is generally referred to as a 10 to 20% drop in prices . . . We don’t have the same established definitions in the housing market.”
In the context of today’s housing market, it doesn’t mean home prices are going to fall dramatically. It only means prices, which have been increasing rapidly over the last couple years, are normalizing a bit. In other words, they’re now growing at a slower pace. Prices vary a lot by local market, but rest assured, a big drop off isn’t what’s happening at a national level.
房地产市场趋于正常
从 2020 年到 2022 年，房价一路飙升。这种快速增长的原因是高需求、低利率和待售房屋短缺。但是，这种激进的增长不可能永远持续下去。
Today, price growth has started to slow down, which is a sign the market is beginning to normalize. The most recent data from Case-Shiller shows that after being basically flat for a couple of months last year, prices are going up at a national level – just not as quickly as before (see graph below):
最大的收获是什么？与大流行病相比，今年迄今为止的价格增长速度要健康得多。
Of course, that’s what’s happening now, but you may be wondering what’s next for prices. Marco Santarelli, the Founder of Norada Real Estate Investments, says:
“Expert forecasts lean towards a moderation in home price growth over the next five years. This translates to a slower and more sustainable pace of appreciation compared to the breakneck speed witnessed in recent years, rather than a freefall in prices.”
这就是供求关系。由于抵押贷款利率相对较高，库存增加加上买家需求有限，将继续缓解部分房价上涨压力。
What This Means for You
If you’re thinking about buying a home, slowing price growth is welcome news. Skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic left many would-be homebuyers feeling priced-out.
While it’s still a good thing to know the value of the home you buy will likely continue to go up once you own it, slowing price gains are making things feel more manageable. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:
“While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help — so the dream of homeownership isn’t boarded up just yet.”
底线
At the national level, home prices are not going down. And most experts forecast they’ll continue growing moderately moving forward. But prices vary a lot by local market. That’s where a trusted real estate agent comes into play. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our area, reach out.