Real Estate News

Will a Recession Hurt Your Home Equity?

As talks of a potential recession in 2025 grow louder, many homeowners are asking a crucial question: What happens to my home equity value if the economy slows down?

Are We Headed for a Recession?

Economic indicators suggest that the risk of a recession is higher now than it was a year ago. With slightly negative GDP growth in Q1 2025, ongoing global tensions like a China trade war, tariffs, and rising interest rates, consumer confidence has declined. These trends are worth paying attention to, especially for homeowners.

Will Home equity Values Drop?

The good news: this isn’t 2008. Today’s homeowners are in a far stronger position. Most have fixed-rate mortgages and have built significant equity over the last several years. If a recession does occur, it’s more likely to result in slower home price growth or modest declines in specific markets—not a housing crash. A sharper correction would likely only happen if unemployment spikes dramatically

How to Protect Your Home Equity

Here are three practical steps to safeguard your equity:

  1. Stay current on your mortgage payments.

  2. Avoid over-leveraging with home equity loans or non-essential renovations.

  3. Keep your home in good condition to retain market appeal.

Bottom line

Yes, a recession is possible—but it’s unlikely to erase your home equity in the short term. With proper planning and awareness, most homeowners will remain in a solid financial position. Real estate is a long-term investment, and staying informed and prepared is the best way to protect it.

Matt & Ying Coyle, Team Coyle — Compass agents in Wellesley

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Matt Coyle, REALTOR®
Address
161 Linden St, Suite 102
Wellesley, MA 02482

Methodology

TownRatings™ is a proprietary model developed by Team Coyle to provide homebuyers and sellers with a relative rating (assessment) of a town’s key characteristics, benchmarked against other Greater Boston towns. Ratings are based on publicly available data and Team Coyle’s on-the-ground expertise and are intended as a general guide only. Please consult a licensed real estate professional before making any real estate decisions. Ratings are current as of October 4, 2025.

RATING CATEGORIES

  • Quality of Schools: Based on Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) 2024 data, emphasizing Grade 10 MCAS English Language Arts and Mathematics proficiency rates and 4-year high school graduation rates. Together, these measures provide a snapshot of academic achievement and long-term outcomes.
    Scale: Above Average · Average · Below Average
  • Commute to Boston: Assesses commuting ease using travel time, distance, and in-town transit access. For towns with MBTA rail or subway service, commute times are measured to the line’s natural Boston endpoint (e.g., North Station, South Station, or Back Bay). For towns without in-town service, commute times are measured by car to Back Bay as the default reference point.
    Scale: Easy · Moderate · Challenging
  • Shopping & Dining: Reflects the density and variety of retail and restaurant options within a town or in adjacent hubs.
    Scale: Excellent · Good · Limited
  • Lifestyle: A general description a town's overall character (e.g., Upscale, Rural, Historic, Suburban, Urban/Vibrant).
  • Est. Annual Tax per $1M: The town’s residential property tax rate applied to $1,000,000 of value (as of the report date) for easy comparison.

HOW RATINGS ARE DERIVED

Ratings are determined using a blend of publicly reported data (e.g., DESE reports, MBTA schedules, municipal tax rates, business directories), mapping and transportation tools, and qualitative insights from Team Coyle agents active in these markets.

LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS

  • Informational only; subject to change without notice.
  • No duty to update: Team Coyle and its agents are not obligated to refresh or revise ratings.
  • No warranties: Information is provided “as is” without warranties of any kind.
  • No liability: Team Coyle, its agents, and Compass are not liable for any losses, damages, or costs arising from use or reliance.
  • Not advice: not legal, tax, financial, educational, or transportation advice. Consult a licensed real estate professional/agent and other appropriate professionals.
  • Verify independently: Commute times vary (route/time/weather) — check MBTA schedules and test commutes. School offerings and performance change — confirm with districts and the MA Dept. of Elementary & Secondary Education. Amenities evolve — verify locally.
  • Third-party content not endorsed; accuracy not guaranteed. Trademarks belong to their owners.
  • Broker disclosure: Compass is a licensed real estate broker and abides by Equal Housing Opportunity laws.
  • Fair housing: Nothing here should be used to encourage or discourage housing decisions based on protected characteristics.